NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY TUESDAY 1 APRIL 1980

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005104555
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: February 1, 2010
• Case Number: F-2007-00460
• Publication Date: April 1, 1980

Director of
Central
Intelligence
APPROVED FOR RELEASE^
DATE: 01-20-2010
National Intelligence Daily
Tuesday
1 April 1980
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 Contents
Situation Report
Iran . . . .
Yugoslavia: Concern About Terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Romania-EC: Bilateral Trade Agreement . .
South Africa - Rhodesia: Subsidies for Salisbury. .
Iraq - Arab States: Pan-Arab Charter Proposal . . .
Cyprus: No Settlement in Sight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Kenya: Military Discontent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Brazil: Metalworkers' Strike . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1 April 1980
 A Tehran newspaper has published an advance copy of a speech
by Ayatollah Khomeini scheduled to be read Later today in which
Khomeini reaffirms that the National Assembly will decide the fate
of the hostages but does not address the issue of transferring
control of the hostages to the Revolutionary Council.
In the speech Khomeini said neither excuses for
past errors nor a confession of guilt by the US will "be
of any avail." He called for unity in overcoming the
US. Moreover, in a statement to Iranian jurists yester-
day, Khomeini appeared to take an uncompromising posi-
tion on the hostages. He said that previous US threats
were only verbal and urged, "Do not be afraid of words
for these words are not followed by action."
Rumors have been circulating in Tehran that the
Revolutionary Council has decided to have the hostages
transferred to government custody. President Bani-Sadr,
following a full session of the Revolutionary Council,
met last night with three leaders of the militants.
After the meeting, one of the militants said, "Bani-Sadr
will make the announcement tomorrow," but he gave no
indication what the announcement would be. The President
is scheduled to address a mass rally today commemorating
the first anniversary of the Islamic Republic.
Without a clear statement from Ayatollah Khomeini
supporting a transfer of the hostages, hardliners on the
Council and the militants themselves would likely attempt
to prevent the move.
The Shah's Health
If reports are true that the Shah's cancer has spread
to his liver, he probably will die in the next seven
months. There is no surgical therapy for lymphoma in
the liver, which also would be resistant to the type of
chemotherapy that is not toxic to the liver.
TOP SCCLUI
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1 April 1980
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 Belgrade's concern has been heightened by the crea-
tion of a new anti-Yugoslav Croatian emigre organization
in Sweden. In the 1970s, Sweden was the base for some of
the most violent attacks on Yugoslavia.
Meanwhile, Belgrade also appears to be focusing on
domestic enemies. Unconfirmed Western press reports in-
dicate some 50 people in the autonomous area of Kosovo
will go on trial this month for antistate activity. The
defendents--who are said to include pro-Soviet Communists,
or Cominformists--allegedly received foreign support.
A series of Cominformist exposes in the mid-1970s led
to a major decline in Yugoslav-Soviet relations and re-
sulted in the expulsion of several Soviet diplomats. A
new dispute over purported Soviet involvement in Kosovo
would strain already tense relations arising from dif-
ferences over Afghanistan and Yugoslavia's role in the
Nonaligned Movement.
Te" Secret
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1 April 1980
 ROMANIA-EC: Bilateral Trade Agreement
The five-year agreement on bilateral trade in industrial
products concluded Zast week between Romania and the EC further
distances Romania from its partners in the Council for Mutual Eco-
nomic Assistance.
The agreement is the most comprehensive pact yet
negotiated between the EC and an individual CEMA member.
It covers all industrial products traded between the EC
and Romania except steel and textiles, which are governed
by separate bilateral agreements, and liberalizes import
restrictions on about half of Romania's industrial ex-
ports to the EC. As a result of the agreement, 85 per-
cent of Romania's exports to the EC are now covered by
bilateral arrangements.
The new pact, together with an agreement concluded
in February that establishes a joint trade commission to
oversee EC-Romanian trade relations, runs counter to the
Soviet position that bilateral accords should await the
conclusion of an overall CEMA-EC agreement. Current
negotiations on such an agreement are making little
headway.
EC appreciation of Romania's opposition to the Soviet
intervention in Afghanistan may have contributed to the
conclusion of the trade agreement, which had been under
negotiation for over a year. The EC offer of specific
trade concessions was about double what it had been before
the Soviet move. EC commission officials, however, deny
that concerns about Afghanistan led to the EC's more
forthcoming attitude.
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1 April 1980
 SOUTH AFRICA - RHODESIA: Subsidies for Salisbury
The South African Ambassador to the US recently told
his government plans to extend discreet financial
aid to the Mu a e government after Rhodesia becomes independent
on 18 April.
Last month Africa withheld its regular budgetary
subsidy to the transitional government in Salisbury, sug-
gesting that further subsidies would be contingent on
Prime Minister - designate Mugabe's acceptance of the
openly cooperative relationship that the South Africans
have advocated.
Mugabe has stated that his government can do busi-
ness with Pretoria but he will not want to publicize
that fact. He has omitted South Africa from a list of
96 governments invited to send representatives to Rho-
desia's independence celebration.
An abrupt cutoff of direct budgetary assistance
would hamper Rhodesian economic reconstruction and social
reform during the critical first months of independence.
The loss of the hitherto substantial subsidy might
eventually be offset by gains in trade and capital that
are likely to result from ending the war and lifting US
economic sanctions. Over the shorter term, however,
Mugabe would have to divert assets from land reforms
and welfare programs that may be needed to reduce popu-
lar pressure for more drastic measures.
The South Africans almost certainly want to avoid
the unsettling political effects of a subsidy cutoff.
They probably also recognize that early acceptance of
open collaboration with South Africa could weaken
Mugabe's ability to restrain some of his more radical
followers. Pretoria thus may be willing to accept an
informal relationship that does not damage Mugabe's
credentials with black Africans.
1 April 19
 IRAQ - ARAB STATES: Pan-Arab Charter Proposal
Iraqi President Saddam Husayn's plans for a summit meeting to
implement his Pan-Arab charter proposal have stalled.
Baghdad announced in early March that 12 countries
and the Palestine Liberation Organization had agreed to
attend a summit. The Iraqis, however, have not been able
to persuade the other seven members of the Arab League to
participate. South Yemen, Oman, Somalia, and Syria re-
portedly have resisted Iraqi demarches on the charter,
which would ban all foreign military bases or facilities
on Arab territory.
Iraqi efforts to enlist the su
members may be working.
Saddam may reason that simply by keeping the charter
proposal in the public eye he keeps the pressure on Arab
countries inclined toward military cooperation with non-
Arab states.
1 April 1980
 An uneasy truce prevails between the Moroccan Gov-
ernment and leftist university students following strikes
and protests earlier this year. The regime has meted out
unexpectedly light sentences to a number of activists ar-
rested in February and March and has released about half
of those detained without trial since 1977. Student
grievances remain unresolved, however, and another con-
frontation is possible before examinations begin later
this spring.
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 CYPRUS: No Settlement in Sight
UN mediators failed to narrow the differences be-
tween the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities before
the 31 March deadline set by the General Assembly resolu-
tion on Cyprus last November. Under the resolution, Sec-
retary General Waldheim is now authorized to create a
seven-member committee to advise him on the Cyprus
question--a move favored by the Greek Cypriots but op-
posed by the Turkish side. Waldheim is concerned that
an advisory committee would complicate his mandate while
Western nations fear it would increase the opportunities
for meddling by the USSR and radical nonaligned states.
The UN effort has foundered so far because the Greek
Cypriots insist on a strong central government and a re-
turn of much of the territory Turkish forces seized in
1974, while the Turks want a loose bizonal federation
with satisfactory security guarantees for the island's
Turkish minority.
KENYA: Military Discontent
Dissatisfaction in the Kenyan Army, based on pay
problems and tribal friction, appears to be increasing.
Army officers, particularly members of the powerful
Kikuyu tribe, were upset by President Moi's recent ac-
ceptance of proposed pay raises that they consider in-
adequate.
Moi has reacted by shelving the pay pro-
posals, and he probably will approve raises generous
enough to ease the discontent. Except for an ill-
conceived plot by the Army commander in the early 1970s,
the Army has remained largely apolitical.
Top esrat
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1 April 1980
 push for firmer action.
becomes violent, however, some in the government may
A confrontation between Brasilia and the Sao Paulo
metalworkers' unions over wage demands could undermine
the regime's anti-inflation program and set a precedent
for future labor settlements. The major metalworker
locals in the greater Sao Paulo area have voted to
strike today for a 15-percent productivity raise beyond
a scheduled cost-of-living adjustment. Strikers could
gain the backing of other locals, including 195,000
workers in the interior of the state. The Figueiredo
administration, which supports management's offer of a
5-percent increase, has taken a restrained approach to
strikes. If the metalworkers' action is prolonged or
1 April 1980
 Tom S-eeret
mopseereF