NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY THURSDAY 21 JANUARY 1982

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005065485
• Release Decision: IPPUB U
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2010
• Case Number: F-2007-00446
• Publication Date: January 21, 1982

 Poland: Political Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
USSR - Western Europe: Pressures Regarding Poland . . . . 4
3 Syria-USSR: SA-8s Detected . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
South Korea - North Korea: Reunification initiative . . . 6
NATO: Possible Dispute Over Turkey . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
9 Iran-Libya: Oil Workers for Libya . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
q Zaire: Economic Reform Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
21 January 1982
 0 POLAND: Political Activities
this practice.
Many local party officials who have been on the
defensive for 16 months are taking the opportunity to
settle scores with those who humiliated them. Party
secretary Orzechowski, who reputedly has close ties
with Premier Jaruzelski, last week publicly condemned
21 January 1982
 Comment: One of the main goals
may be to bring some order to the seeming y
spontaneous purge of party ranks in many localities.
The leadership apparently is concerned that the party
2
21 January 1982
 Weather's Impact
Poland's unusually harsh winter has placed additional
/ strains on the economy. Bad weather has on several occa-
sions stalled rail and highway traffic, hampered trans-
loading operations in the Baltic ports, and impeded
North of Warsaw, flooding of river lowlands has
destroyed thousands of hectares of winter grains and has
isolated rural residents. Forecasts indicate continued
vbelow-normal temperatures and greater-than-normal snow-
fall well into February.
Comment: The severe weather probably has helped
dampen active resistance to the imposition of martial
law. It also potentially provides an alibi for poor
economic performance. The continuation of bad weather
could affect leadership discussions of reform options
by hindering accurate assessments of passive resistance
and its costs to the economy.
Solidarity Day
Most West European governments are responding
positively to the call for an International Solidarity
Day on 30 January, but their plans for observances
remain tentative and incomplete. Each EC government
3 will organize activities in its own way. Many West
European national trade unions also will sponsor Soli-
darity Day activities, but the major West European labor
confederations apparently are not planning European-wide
Comment: Close coordination of Solidarity Day ac-
tivities seems increasingly unlikely. Although several
91/West European leaders have agreed to make individual
/' televised statements, such actions do not signal funda-
mental policy changes on Poland.
3
21 January 1982
 USSR - WESTERN EUROPE: Pressures Regarding Poland
with Poland.
The Soviets are putting pressure on some West European govern-
ments not to adopt a critical stance toward the USSR in connection
pressure on some West European governments.
Comment: The Soviets are disappointed that their
media campaign did not dissuade West European governments
from subscribing to EC and NATO statements criticizing
the USSR's role in Poland. They are applying more direct
European receptivity to their concerns.
tinue to use positive inducements to encourage West
Moscow probably will continue to invoke the bene-
fits of East-West trade--especially the Siberian pipe-
line project--the INF talks in Geneva, and CSCE in urg-
ing the West Europeans not to follow the US lead in
imposing sanctions. The Soviets also are likely to con-
21 January 1982
 The appearance in Syria of the first SA-8 surface-to-air
missile system outside the Warsaw Pact underscores the importance
the USSR assigns to its ties with Syria.
Comment: The Syrians will use the highly mobile
missile system to strengthen the air defense capability
of their armored and mechanized infantry units. Although
the system could be deployed ultimately to Lebanon, it
probably will remain in Syria until the Soviets train
i/ the Syrians on it.
The shipment is part of Moscow's ongoing agreement
to upgrade Syrian military capabilities. Delivery may
have been promised during Syrian Defense Minister Tlas's
Z visit to Moscow last September--when a major new arms
deal evidently was signed--and appears to be in response
to heightened Syrian-Israeli tensions.
The SA-8 may soon appear in the inventories of
Libya, Iraq, and other Soviet hard currency arms clients.
~ In 1981 the Soviets also agreed to sell the system to
Y -Jordan; those deliveries are to begin late this year.
5
21 January 19-92
 posal on Korean reunification tomorrow.
South Korean President Chun is to, announce a manor new pro-
government through general elections.
Chun will call for the normalization of relations
between the two Koreas through an interim agreement that
focuses heavily on measures to reduce current North-
South tensions. The longer term part of the plan calls
for drafting a constitution for a unified Korea, a refer-
endum to legalize it, and the establishment of a unified
tions for new negotiations.
North Korea has consistently refused to deal with
the Chun government. It continues to demand the with-
drawal of US troops and the ouster of Chun as precondi-
the prestige of his government.
Comment: The proposal on reunification is the most
detailed and flexible ever put forth by Seoul. Chun
hopes to retain the initiative on this emotional issue,
attract increased international support, and increase
ploy to maintain the two Koreas.
The North Koreans almost certainly will disparage
Chun's initiative, even though it has some features
similar to P'yongyang's unification proposal of October
1980 to form a confederation. North Korea is likely to
criticize the proposal for an interim agreement as a
21 January 1982
 NATO: Possible Dispute Over Turkey
sensus against the martial law regime in Poland.
The increasing unhappiness of some NATO Allies with the mili-
tary regime in Turkey could complicate the effort to build a con-
regimes on human rights.
The Norwegian Government on 14 January blocked the
shipment of 34 antiaircraft guns that had been offered
to Turkey before the military takeover in 1980. The
Ministry of Foreign Affairs says the decision was taken
in light of political developments in Turkey, especially
the prosecution of 52 radical labor leaders, and would
be reevaluated if developments warrant. Meanwhile, in
a clear allusion to Turkey, Danish Foreign Minister
Olesen argued at a NATO meeting last week that the
Alliance should not apply a double standard for military
The Norwegian Foreign Minister had indicated before
the embargo that he did not think it useful to pursue the
Turkish question at NATO, but the Norwegian Government
has shown increasing concern over reported human rights
violations in Turkey. The Danes also have become con-
cerned over conditions in Turkey, particularly after the
Danes see as similar abuses.
pressure in military matters as well.
Comment: The Norwegian action marks a new stage in
the demonstration of West European dislike of the Turkish
regime. Since the takeover, Ankara has been denied new
EC economic credits and has been threatened with expul-
sion from the Council of Europe. Now it is under some
The discussion could undercut efforts by the major mem-
bers of NATO to achieve a unified position on Poland.
The Greeks probably will again seek to make Turkey
an issue within NATO after being rebuffed last year. The
issue could become more troublesome this year if the
Norwegians, Danes, and others now support the Greeks.
7
21 January 1982
 IRAN-LIBYA: Oil Workers for Libya
delegation visited Libya last week.
Iran's Oil Minister, according to press reports, has
announced that 2,000 Iranian oil workers will be sent to
Libya to replace departing US personnel. An Iranian
US technicians.
appears to be having little difficulty in finding highly
skilled European workers to replace the 650 departing
created a shortage of managers and skilled technicians.
It is unclear why Tripoli would agree to accept the
Iranian workers, other than for symbolic reasons. Libya
ost are likely to be semiskilled; purges presumably have
Comment: Iran probably can send this many workers
to Libya because of high unemployment in its oil industry.
21 January 1982
 ZAIRE: Economic Reform Measures
$5 billion foreign debt. The President is counting on
the US to intervene on Zaire's behalf with the interna-
tional financial community and to supply military sup-
port if economic hardships result in social upheaval.
Comment: Prospects are not good that Mobutu will
remain committed to economic reform because he fears
that the austerity measures called for by the IMF will
continue to increase political and social pressures.
In the coming months Mobutu will call for substantial
Western aid and another round of rescheduling of Zaire's
in Shaba Region.
President Mobutu has undertaken to reduce economic
mismanagement in return for assurances of increased sup-
port from the US. He has enhanced the role of several
senior officials committed to reforms urged by the IMF,
has begun to change management and marketing practices
in. the mining industry to limit inefficiency and corrup-
tion, and has reduced government interference in other
areas of the economy such as coffee and petroleum.
Mobutu also has said he will use promised Western mili-
tary aid to strengthen key Army units in Kinshasa and
10
21 January 1982
 21 January 1982
 13 Ten secre
21 January 1982