NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0001367613
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: June 23, 2015
• Document Release Date: September 9, 2010
• Case Number: F-2007-00450
• Publication Date: October 15, 1985

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APPROVED FOR RELEASED DATE:
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(*PAN NID 115-240JX
15 Octobm 1985
copy 535
4
.
t
--Top-eacral--
Contents
Italy: impending Government Crisis
Belgium: Prime Minister's Election Victory
USSR-Ubys: Results of Summit
USSR: Planning Chief Replaced
1
2
3
4
5
13
Eastern Europe-USSIt Narrowing the Trade Deficit
Notes
7
PaMilton: Zia's Parliamentary Troubles
Chile: Violent Protests Expected
Uberia: Elections Today
In Brief
7
a
a
9
Analyses
Special
. 10
11
Persian Gulf-USSR: Rethinking Relations
I
ITALY: Impending Government Crisis
Defense Minister Spade!Mrs boycott ol yesterday's inner cabinet
mooting sugrote the Crifal government may tall over the Achille
Laura affair.
Following a meeting of his Republican Party Directorate yesterday
afternoon, Spadolini told the press that he has sent a letter to Prime
Minister Crawl criticizing the government's handling of the hijacking
and advising him that the Republicans will disassociate themselves
from the government's position during Thursday's debate In
Parliament over the Achille Lauro. Spadolini stated that he was
especially upset over the government's decision to release Abu
Abbas and emphasized that neither he nor his party had been
consulted.
bpadolini's absence from the special meeting of the inner
cabinet would probably signal a government crisis. The Liberals and
Social Democrats, junior members in the Craxl coalition, were present
at yesterday's meeting but echoed Spadolini's criticisms of the
government in their comments to the press.
Comment: Middle East policy has been a particularly sensitive issue
within the governing coalition throughout Craxi's administration. A
week before the Achille Lauro affair, the governing partners found
themselves at odds over Craxi's and Foreign Minister Andreotti's
sharp denunciations of Israel for its raid on PLO headquarters in
Tunis. The Republicans, Liberals, and Social Democrats argued that
Craxi's and Andreotti's statements should have been more
evenhanded.
Deputy Prime Minister Foriani will probably take the lead between
now and Thursday in trying to smooth over relations with an eye to
saving the coalition. Forlani is almost certain to argue that a
Republican abandonment of the government would force the other
partners to choose among the following unpalatable alternatives:
forming a minority government, seeking a deal with the Communists
or the neofascist MSI, or asking President Cossiga to convoke early
national elections in the spring after the Christian Democratic and
Communist Party congresses.
6'6
Tnis-Seeret-
15 October 1985
Top 15.Gr.
ober 1985
Jean Gel
Chief of Walloon Liberal Party, big
business party closely associated with
largest banking, steel, and utility
companies .. . popular former Socialist
and aggressive champion of Belgium's
French-speaking population ... strongly
pro-NATO, will be instrumental in
maintaining Belgian support for INF and
other US foreign policy initiatives.
V
MOM* Prime Minister's Election Victory
Th. reelection of Primo Minister Martens's cantor-right coalition
In last Sunday's election will at least temporarily strengthen the
hand of pro-NATO Mideast in both Belgium and the
Netherlands.
The Social Christian-Liberal coalition was expected to remain in
office following the election, but a strong showing by Martens's
Flemish Social Christians has increased the government's majority by
two seats-115 of 212 deputies. The coalition partners will now
bargain over a new government program. and the new Cabinet is to
take office by early November.
o,ji
his portfolio; influental Walloon Liberal leader Gol may take the
Foreign inlets( Tindernans will probably retain
defense slot.
Comment: The coalition's reelection?unprecedented for a Belgian
Government after nearly four years in office?is a vote of confidence
in Prime Minister Martens. At least for the near term, he will have
unusual clout in Belgian politics.
Martens's skill will be tested quickly because of the reemergence of
divisive regional issues that may make his new government less stable
than its predecessor. Within a month, for example, the government
may again face bickering between Flemish and Walloon leaders over
decentralizing control of religious education.
The Belgian election result probably finishes INF as an active political
issue for Brussels until next year at the earliest, and marginally helps
the deployment debate in The Hague. The Belgians may now be able
to proceed with the next stages of INF deployment as early as next
year, especially if the hard-driving Go) becomes defense minister.
The Netherland's Christian Democrats, who face their INF decision on
1 November, will probably note that a pro-INF stand did not damage
Flemish Social Christian prospects. Divisions on INF, however, are
deeper in the Netherlands than in Belgium; unlike the Belgians, the
Dutch are not scheduled to deploy INF until well after their
parliamentary elections, due in May 1986.
2
-Top-Seeret-
15 October 1985
Tu 5.crwI
USSR-USVA: Results of Summit
The Soviats roiled out tba red carpet for Libyan laadar Qadhati,
whose first visit since 1011 ended yesterday, but they apparently
gave him littio of substance and continuo to maintain a certain
distance from him.
The two sides signed a long-term program for economic and scientific
cooperation, a protocol on "political consultation," and a consular
agreement. There was no mention in Soviet or Libyan media coverage
of a friendship treaty, an arms deal, or agreements on nuclear Dower
and oil sales?all r which Qadhafi desired
In the Libyan version of a "joint statement" issued yesterday, both
sides condemned US military, economic, and media provocations
against Libya. The Soviets expressed their full support for Ubya "In
all the measures it takes" to defend its independence, land, and
territorial waters.
The statement contained no characterization of the talks between
Qadhafi and General Secretary Gorbachev and stated the leaders had
similar views on most International issues. It condemned the US
diversion of the Egyptian airliner as "state terrorism," and it
denounced "unilateral capitulatory deals" on the Arab-Israeli
question, but it made no mention of the Soviet plan for an
international conference on the issue. which Gorbachev had plugged
In his dinner speech Friday.
Western and Arab journalists told
that Gorbachev berated Qadhafi during their private meeting for
transferring Soviet arms to Iran. Qadhafi sidestepped questions on
the issue and on the absence of a friendship treaty during his solo
press conference yesterday. He noted that peace in the Middle East
will be impossible to achieve as long as Israel continues to exist.
Comment: The lack of the customary characterization of the talks in
the statement suggests the discussions were contentious. Libyan
arms shipments to Iran, the Arab-Israeli peace process, and
Moscow's unwillingness to extend Qadhafi any security commitments
probably were the main areas of differences. Gorbachev's failure to
join Qadhafi in the press conference underlined Moscow's desire not
to appear too close to the unpredictable Libyan.
3
ft
15 October 1985
lantmstive4--
15 October 1955
Vladhoirevich Tap:la
At 56 was youngest of 10 deputy premiers
and had held that post since October 19110
... as Soviet Permanent Representative to
Council for Mutual Economic Assistance,
worked closely with Ryzhkov before latter
became Premier. may be Ryzhkov
protege. . may also have had ties
to Andropov . satellite
communications expert. . . Minister of
Communications from 1975 to 1980.
6 2
USilfb Planning Chief Replaced
The retirement of NIkolay ileybskov, 74, who has hooded the
USSR State Planning Committee for 20y..,., will give General
Secretors Gorbachev ? freer hand in implentenUng his economic
PPM&
TASS announced Baybakov's retirement yesterday. Replacing him is
Nikolay Talyzin, who was simultaneously promoted to the rank of First
Deputy Premier, a step higher than his predecessor.
Comment Baybakov, a Brezhnev-era appointee, was a staunch
advocate of strong centralized economic controls and traditional
priorities. He may have been involved in high-level controversy over
the draft economic plan for 1986-90 and the guidelines for the period
up to the year 2000 because his retirement comes on the eve of a
Central Committee plenum scheduled to discuss the draft. Former
Premier Tikhonov may also have opposed the general thrust of
Gorbachev's program; he was replaced the day after a Politburo
discussion of the draft plan, and. as Premier, he would have been the
speaker to address that subject at the plenum.
Talyzin, the new Gosplan thief, represents a break with the past
because of his relative youth and lack of experience in national
economic planning. His elevation to the post of First Deputy under
Premier Ryzhkov, a Gorbachev ally, indicates he is a member of
Gorbachev's team.
?Top-Georef-
4 15 October 1985
NO.
Top Sourly
15 October 1985
I
S
r
4
tr.
r
1)
East Europeen-Seviet Trade
Million rubles
1st Halt
1994
Rai Year
1st Hall
1985
19N
Bulgaria
2,823
3,174
-351
5,608
6.124
-516
2,912
3,156
-244
Exports
Imports
Balance
Czechoslovakia
Exports
2,996
6.017
3,246
Imports
3,346
6,501
3,317
Balance
-350
-574
-71
GDR
Exports
3,772
7,387
3,821
Imports
3,583
7,481
3,710
Balance
189
-114
111
Hungary
Exports
2,042
4,434
2,280
Imports
2,266
4,321
2,207
Balance
-224
113
73
Poland
Exports
2,594
5,297
2,611
Imports
2,916
8,089
3,089
Balance
-322
-772
-478
Romania
Exports
943
1,755
1,083
Imports
952
1,807
889
Balance
-9
-52
194
Total
Exports
15,168
30,478
15,952
Imports
16,238
32,394
16,368
Balance
-1,070
-1.916
-416
-Tets-Reers4-
15 October 1985
EASTERN EUROPE- Renewing Trade Deficit
Unit
A sharp drop in Eastern Europe's trade deficit with the USSR
during the first hail of 1015 was swo roam of slower Soviet
exports and of Moscow's pressure to balance trade.
The latest Soviet statistics show that the trade deficit in Eastern
Europe fell by 60 percent compared with the same period last year.
Poland was the only country with a larger deficit the other five
countries collectively registered a small surplus.
Soviet exports picked up slightly in the second quarter after a poor
start last winter, but deliveries for the six-month period remained
about the same as in the first half of 1984. Exports from Eastern
Europe increased only 5 percent. Performance varied widely among
countries, but Crtchoslovakia. Hungary, and Romania recorded brisk
gains In exports
Comment: The decline in the trade deficit?now at its lowest level at
midyear since 1976?reflects Soviet efforts to pressure Eastern
Europe to increase exports. Although Soviet exports may pick up in
the second half, the deficit for the year Is almost certain to be much
lower than last year's total of 1.9 billion rubies.
The boost in exports to the USSR from Romania. Hungary, and
Czechoslovakia coincides with a drop in their exports to the West,
suggesting stronger efforts by these countries to comply with Soviet
demands. Romania and Hungary, In particular, have diverted
agricultural exports to the USSR because of stack demand in Western
markets. The rising deficit in Poland reflects special treatment by the
Soviets in consideration of Warsaw's economic difficulties. For the
other countries, the trade data Indicate that Moscow is no longer
willing to tolerate carrvina larae trade imbalances
6
No.
3q.rwt-
15 October 1985
TOD secret
15 October 1985
6 P 6
-Too-Soerst?
PAKISTAN: Zia's Parliamentary Troubles
President Zia has run into unexpectedly persistent parliamentary
opposition to a proposed constitutional reform bill?a prerequisite for
the establishment of a civilian government by the end of the year. The
bill, introduced last month, would legalize all actions of Zla's eight-
year-old martial law regime and grant him immunity from prosecution
for actions he took as chief martial law administrator. The Pakistani
press announced yesterday that Zia canceled a state visit to West
Germany to ensure that the bill was approved before he leaves
Saturday for talks in New York with Indian Prime Minister Gandhi and
President Reagan.
Commit: The government could easily ram the bill through
parliament, but?up to now?Zia has taken pains to maintain an
appearance of parliamentary process and already has tried one
compromise to make the bill acceptable. Zia, however, does not want
to cancel his Important talks In New York. Moreover, a protracted
debate almost certainly would increase dissatisfaction among the
military, already disgruntled at being caught in the middle during the
transition to civilian rule, and could result in the military's loss of
confidence in Zia. Zia, in turn. Is likely to be increasingly concerned
about his Prime Minister's ability to manage the future civilian
government.
7
/
15 October 1985
CHILE: Violent Protests Expected
The main organized labor and university student groups, with the help
of several moderate opposition parties and slum neighborhood
committees, are planning numerous antlreolme dem Wagons today
in major Chilean cities, They are
demanding the release of jailed trade union leaders the government
claims were responsib for
early last month
?":- ? I., H * ? ? 1, ?
Ithe
Communist Party is supporting today's activities butrmicomtratincum_
plans for a nationwide strike by early November.
Comment: The principal new factors in recent antiregime activities
are the emerging unity among student and labor sectors and the
willingness of student groups to challenge the security forces in
almost daily street clashes. In addition, a variety of labor groups have
become more combative throughout the country recently. The
Communists, who appear to be gaining greater influence among all
these groups, want to persuade the key small businessmen's
association and the transportation workers' union to support the
strike. If these 6roups agree to collaborate, the government probably
will face a serious challenge in the form of an unprecedented national
strike by the first week in November.
LIBERIA: Elections Today
All opposition parties have agreed to participate In today's
presidential and legislative elections atter last minute negotiations
wit the
o iasote . -rian ction Party?the leading opposition party?
are not satisfied with the compromise and may yet decide not to
participate, numerous
measures have been taken to prevent harassment of civilians at the
polls, but isolated confrontations are
likely, particularly in rural areas where members of Head of Stat
Doe's party will attempt to ensure his victory.
Comment: Doe is determined to stay in power, even if it means
rigging the election results. Government efforts to ensure
participation by opposition parties probably were designed to
improve the election's credibility, lessen the potential for violence,
and undermine likely challenges of the election results. A decision by
officials of the Liberian Action Party to pull out now is likely to cause
more damage to the party than to the elections' credibility. Serious
manipulation of results, however, will undermine postelection stability
and is likely to provoke strong protests from the opposition that could
lead to a violent clash with security officials.
V
15 October 1985
To Cearet
In Brief
Middle East
South Asia
Eget Asia
? British Foreign Secretary Howe yesterday canceled meeting with
PLO representatives.., said PLO refused to accept communique
recognizing Israel's right to exist ... Foreign Office may try to
revive meeting later, but Tory strategists probably relieved
? PLO chief Arafat unexpectedly visited Khartoum over weekend ...
publicly attacked US for hijacker aircraft interception ...
Sudanese paid lipservice to Palestinian cause, but moving to haft
demonstration against US Embassy today.
? Iran's Prime Minister Musavi won vote of confidence in
Consultative Assembly Sunday ... foreordained atter Ayatollah
Khomeini endorsed his continuation in office ... Assembly likely to
pose problems when Musavi presents cabinet selections.
? Zia told Indian press yesterday Pakistan's nuclear program could
be made "nonpeaceful" any time ... response to suggestions by
Gandhi that India preserving its nuclear option ... nuclear issues
high on agenda when two meet next week.
? Japanese Prime Minister Nakasone agreed to Soviet leader
Gorbachev's proposal to resume talks, suspended since 1978 ...
improvement in relations would help Nakasone domestical
northern territorial issue will remain obstacle to agreement.
Western Europe ? French Socialists agreed on campaign strategy at congress that
ended Sunday ... will go into opposition if they lose legislative
majority in March ... defeat for moderates who wanted to bargain
with other parties to remain in power.
? Former Chief of Spanish Communist Party, Santiago Carrillo,
formed breakaway Communist group last week ... Communists
now split three ways... reduces leftist pressure on Prime Minister
Gonzalez over NATO.
? Sweden's Prime Minister Paime yesterday announced major
government shuffle ... controversial Foreign Minister moved to
education ... highly respected Defense Minister, who wished to
serve only one term, also replaced.
013 GrU
9 15 October 1985
I
4
?Ten-Seeret-
15 October 1985
eI
3 2 8 0
f
I
F.
10
?Tefo-Seeret-
15 October 1985
I
4
?Too-Secret?
Porsian Gulf States Relations
With Communist Countries
Diplosudic Ties Pi'Mary Ties
Soriet-Beeked
insurgent Groupe
Bahrain
NOM
None
National Front for the Liberation
of Bahrain (about 700 members)
Popular Front for the Liberation
of Bahrain (about 500 members)
Kuwait
Recognizes USSR,
PRC, Cuba, East
Bloc, and Asian
Communist states
1982 arms sale
worth $320 million
to purchase
military equipment;
People's Union Party (less than
100)
Also Marxist-oriented Palestinian
groups
Oman
Recognizes PRC,
Yugoslavia,
Romania, USSR
None
Popular Front for the Liberation
of Oman (about 500 members,
mostly in South Yemen)
Qatar
None
None
None
Saudi Arabia None
None
None currently active
UAE
Recognizes PRC, None
Yugoslavia
None known
-Top-Secire
15 October 1985
?81,
b
ft
(;)
Spacial Analysis
PERSIAN GULF- Rethinking Relations
USSR
The smaller states of the Persian Gulf appear to be reconsidering
their previous policy ol keeping distance between themsehies
and the USSR. Oman recognized Moscow last month, /coining
Kuwait, which has had relations with the USSR for years. Bahrain
and the United Arab Emirates probably will follow suit; they
believe better relations with Moscow could contribute to stability
in the region and improve the prospects for talks between Israel
and Arab states. They also probably hope that normalizing
relations with Moscow will buy them added protection from Iran.
Oman's willingness to establish ties to the USSR probably has piqued
the interest of the other Gulf states in Moscow. The timing of the
move to coincide with the Omani Foreign Minister's visit to the US
suggests Oman is signaling that the US takes it too much for aranted
The rise in terrorism this summer, expectation of a retaliatory Iranian
attack, and a perception of the US seemingly unconditional support
for Israel have combined to encourage Gulf leaders to reconsider
zing relations with Moscow. Gulf leaders have
unhappiness with apparent US support for the raid by Israel on
offices in Tunis. The Foreign Minister from Bahrain recently
contrasted the inability of the US to influence events in the region with
the possibility that the Soviets might be able to play a more effective
role.
Next Moves
Senior officials of the Persian Gulf states are he.ninning to
balance their ties to
the West and that the Soviets might play a useful role in maintaining
regional security. Kuwait's Foreign Minister last week ur ed that
Moscow be included in the Arab-Israeli peace process.
Meanwhile, Kuwait's Defense Minister announced last Tuesday that
Soviet Defense Minister Sokolov will visit Kuwait in December?
although Moscow has not confirmed the visit. Sokolov would be the
11
No,
continued
?Top-Sscsal--
15 October 1985
ik)
Top mcreI
highest ranking Soviet official to go to Kuwait, and it would be his first
official visit to the Third World as Defense Minister. Kuwait 4 the only
one of the conservative Gulf states to have purchased Soviet arms;
Sokolov probably will discuss additional arms sales.
Oman and Kuwait probably will raise the issue of relations with
Moscow at the summit of Gulf Cooperation Council leaders in Muscat
next month. Bahrain and the UAE, in particular, are likely to recognize
Moscow, possibly in the next few months. Saudi officials are still
hinting that the USSR has an important role to play in the region, but
they are unlikely to go beyond the current stage of discreet contacts
any time soon
Implications for the US
Leaders In the vulnerable Persian Gulf states do not want to after their
current relationships with the US and will continue to look for
reassurances that the US will protect them if Iran attacks. Even so,
they believe relations with the US are risky and hope that recognizing
Moscow will provide an additional layer of protection from Iran, Syria,
the Palestinians, and pro-Communist factions in the Gulf. The Gulf
states will continue to have serious differences with Moscow; they will
remain suspicious of its intentions In the Persian Gulf and opposed to
the Soviets' occupation of Afghanistan and their support for leftist
insurgent groups.
12
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=1 5 October 1
II