SITUATION APPRAISAL OF POSSIBLE MOTIVES BEHIND THE CONSTRUCTION OF ROADS IN NORTHERN LAOS BY THE CHINESE COMMUNISTS
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00012514
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U
Document Page Count:
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Document Creation Date:
April 26, 2019
Document Release Date:
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Sequence Number:
Case Number:
Publication Date:
January 1, 1968
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DIVICTORATE OP
PLANS
Thus material contains information affecting the National Defense of the United States within the meaning of the Espionage Laws, Title 11I, U.S.C. Secs. 793 and 794, the
sronsrniuion or revelation of which in any manner to an unauthorised person is prohibited by law.
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STATE/INR DIA NMCC/MC (SECDET JCS ARMY NAVY AIR) CIA/NMCC NIC NSA $DO ONE CRS OER MDEXISGS
ZZ .E>i itkARVift.6:
THIS IS AN INFORMATION REPORT, NOT FINALLY -EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE 1.3(a)K
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DMT 2 DECEMBER 68
COUNTRY
DOI
SUBJECT
ACQ
LAOS/CHINA
JANUARY - NOVEMBER 1968 AilAS ggiBED
TAAr'
'SITUATION APPRAISAL or POSSIBLE MOTIVES BEHIND THE CONSTRUCTIa
OF ROADS IN NORTHERN LAOS BY THE CHINESE COMMUNISTS
SOURCE THIS
APPRAISAL
1.3(0(4
1111111.1.11111111MMIMIIIIMMIII.IS AN INTERPRETATION
�
BASED ON PREVIOUSLY REPORTED INFORMATION. PREPARED PRIMARILY
FOR INTERNAL AGENCY USE, IT IS DISSEMINATED IN THE BELIEF THAT
IT MAY BE USEFUL TO INTELLIGENCE ANALYSTS IN THEIR OWN ASSESS;.,
OF THE SITUATION.
SUMMARY: BY EARLY OCTOBER 1968 A MILITARY FORCE OF APPROXIMATELY
3,000 ARMED CHINESE WAS ENGAGED IN CONSTRUCTION OF A MAJOR NEW ROAD
ARTERY FROM THE SINO-LAO BORDER TO A POINT CONNECTING WITH A ROADBED
LEADING TO THE MEKONG RIVER THIRTY KILOMETERS FROM THAILAND. THE cHoicr
OF A MILITARY OVER A CIVILIAN CONSTRUCTION FORCE, THE LOGISTICS OF THE
EFFORT, ITS TIMING IN RELATION TO THE PARIS TALKS, AND THE CHINESE MOTIT
BEHIND IT POSE QUESTIONS REACHING BEYOND THOSE OF IMMEDIATE IMPORTANCE.
OMNI Assommummammeamm
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ON ITS OUTCOME MAY REST THE SPONSORSHIP OF THE THAI SUBVERSIVE MOVEMENT
AND THE CONTROL OVER THE PATHET LAO 'ELEMENTS CLOSEST TO THE CHINESE
BORDER. , END OF SUMMARY
1. PERHAPS THE MOST SURPRISING THING ABOUT THE CHINESE COMMUNIST
ROAD PROJECT IN NORTHWEST LAOS IS THAT ANYONE SHOULD BE SURPRISED BY �
IT. THERE ARE REPORTS OF CHINESE ROAD BUILDING PROJECTS WHICH DATE FRol
1962. MORE RECENTLY THERE IS CLEAR EVIDENCE Of CHINESE INTENTIONS
DATING BACK TO JANUARY 1968 AND EVEN INDICATIONS THAT, BUT FOR 'INTERNAL
DISRUPTIONS PRESUMABLY CAUSED BY THE CULTURAL REVOLTUION, THEY WOULD B:
MUCH FARTHER ALONG NOW.
2. CLASSICALLY, THE CHINESE FIRST PREPARED THEIR LOGISTICS BASE
OFFICIALS FROM 1.3(a)(4)
SHANG-YUNG /QD 8148/, CHINA, INSTRUCTED VILLAGERS IN NAM HOO /QD 8259/.
CHINA IN JANUARY 1968 TO INCREASE THEIR RICE PRODUCTION GOALS IN ORDER
TO SUPPORT CONSTRUCTION WORKERS WHO WOULD BUILD A MOTORABLE ROAD FROM
THE SINO-LAO BORDER AT QD 7846 TO BAN BATENE /QD 7744/, LAOS, AND THEr
SOUTHWEST TO NAM TUA /QD 5018/. THIS ENTERPRISE WAS DESCRIBED AT THAT
TIME AS A SUPPLY ROUTE TO SUPPORT THE PATHET LAO.
3. NEVERTHELESS, IT WAS FIVE MONTHS LATER BEFORE CHINESE SOLDIERS
APPEARED IN LAOS PERMANENTLY /EXCURSIONS OF ONE OR TWO DAYS HAVE BEEN
COMMON FOR SOME TIME/ WITH SURVEYING INSTRUMENTS, CONSTRUCTION TOOLS,
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AND ANTIAIRCRAFT /AA/ WEAPONS. THE SIZE AND MAKEUP OF THE FORCE, ONE
ENGINEERING COMPANY AND FIVE INFANTRY COMPANIES, DID NOT AT THIS TIME
FLAG IT AS A PRECURSOR OF THE LARGER ELEMENTS TO FOLLOW, ALTHOUGH THE
PRESENCE OF .A 105MM HOWITZER AND TWO 57MM AA GUNS HINTED THAT =EY
NOT EXPECT THEIR EFFORTS TO GO UNCHALLENGED. INDEED BY OCTOBER TY 11;.1)
SWOLLEN TO A FORCE OF APPROXIMATELY 3,000 MEN, ONE�THIRD OF THEM COMBAT
TROOPS, WITH A MOTORIZED SURFACE ROLLER, PNEUMATIC DRILLS AND COMPRESSi�a:
NINE OR TEN BULLDOZERS, AND HAND TOOLS. THEIR ANNOUNCED INTENTION WAS T(
CUT A ROAD SIX METERS WIDE FROM THE YUNNAN SALIENT TO MUONG SAI /RC 12..:),
THE EFFECT OF THIS WOULD BE CONNECT WITH OLD ROUTE 46 LEADING 70 THE METh
AT PAK BENG /QC 2301/. ROUTE 46 IS NOT A MOTORAALE ROUTE BUT IT COULD -
AND MAY WELL BE USED AS A TRAIL BY COMMUNISTS INFILTRATING AND EXFILTR.
THAILAND VIA LAOS.
4. THIS INCURSION FORCE pomp NOT, OF COURSE, GO UNNOTICED, NOR
WAS THERE ANY INDICATION THAT THE CHINESE INTENDED IT TO. BY OPTING
FOR DIRECT PARTICIPATION AT EVEN THE COOLIE LEVEL, THEY APPEARED TO
TURN THEIR BACK ON ALL CHANCE� FOR PLAUSIBLE DENIAL. WORKING THROUGH
LOCAL LAO ADMINISTRATIVE OFFICERS USING CONSCRIPTED LAO LABOR WOULD HA":
PRESERVED A FIG LEAF OF RESPECTABILITY, BUT WOULD ALSO HAVE TIED THE
CHINESE TO A MUCH SLOWER PACE. THAT THEY NEVERTHELESS ARE LOOKING ;7
TOWARDS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD RELATIONS WITH THE LOCAL
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OR AT LEAST AN ABSENCE OF ANIMOSITY, IS EVIDENCED BY THE CHINESE
DECISION TO SUPPLY THEIR FORCE ENTIRELY FROM YUNNAN , FOREGOING ANY EFFORT
TO LIVE OFF THE LAND. ON 16 JUNE, FOR EXAMPLE, CONSTRUCTION STOPPED FOR
TWO MONTHS BECAUSE THE TURMOIL IN CHINA HAD DISRUPTED TRANSPORTATION,
AND SUPPLIES WERE NOT REACHING BAN BATENE . VILLAGERS WERE TOLD THAT
CONSTRUCT ION WOULD BE POSTPONED AND SOLDIERS WOULD AGAIN TAKE UP THEIR
TOILS WHEN THE SITUATION RETURNED TO NORMAL. IT DID SO, AND THEY
DID. IN MID-AUGUST A CONVOY OF 208 TRUCKS APPEARED AT THE
BORDER BEARING MAO SLOGANS.) AND THE PACE HAS NOT CLACKENED
SINCE.
5. THE CHINESE PAY TWO WAYS FOR THE LUXURY OF USING
THEIR OWN LABOR �FORCE:. ON ONE COPNT THEY RISK BEING
CRITICIZED FOR INVADING A TERRIRORy OF AN OSTENSIBLY
FRIENDLY AND NEUTRAL LAOS. HOWEVER, SINCE THEIR ROAD-
BUILDING ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTED TO AN .OUT-OF-THE- .
WAY AREA CONTROLLED BY PATHET LAO AND NORTH VIETN MESE
FORCES AND THUS IS NOT OPEN TO INSPECTION BY OFFICIALS OF
THE ROYAL LAO GOVERNMENT iRLGi AND OR THE WORLD PRESS,
IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THIS VIOLATION OF,LA0 SOVEREIGNTY WILL
5 CAUSE MORE THAN A SLIGHT TREMOR ON THE WORLD'S PUBLIC
4
3 OPINION SEISMOGRAPH. ANOTHER PROBLEM THE CHINESE MUST
2
HAVE CONSIDERED AND
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FACT THAT THEY ARE EXPOSING tHEIR. TROOPS TO AIR. ATTACK.
THE PR:LSENCE OF ANTIAIRCRAFT WEAPONS INDICATES THIS, AS
DOES THE INDOCTRINATION OF VILLAGERS TO DIG SHELTERS AND
TO. EXPECT AIR .ATTACXS.. HOWEVER , THIS, rqo !MAY FACTOR
OT. TO A BAkG.AIWRATE PRICE.' WHILE THE CHINESE ARE VELL-
AWARE THAT THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE. IS BOMBING PATHET
*LAO AND NORTH VIETNAMESE FORCES IN LAOS, THEY PROBABLY
ASSUME THAT THE VIITED STATES WOULD CONSIDER BOMBING
ATTACKS AGAINST T.HE CHINESE COMMUNIST PEOPLES LIBERATIONS
ARMY /PLA/ IN THE CATEGORY OF A NEW BALL GAME. THUS, THE
CHINESE MAY WELL BE .GOING UNDER T*HE ASSUMPTION THAT THEY
HAVE ONLY TO DEAL. WITH THE FEW SCORE 11A0 AND THAI-PILOTED
-T-2S' S.
6. OVERALL, THERE IS ONE OTHER SLIGHT RISK TI-E CHINESE
RUN IN. 'BUILDING THIS ARTERY. 'OBVIOUSLY, ANY ROAD THAT LEADS
OUT AN ALSO LEAD IN. IN JUD.GING THIS THREAT; HOWEVER A
CURSORY LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL OF EVEN A MILITARILY-
HOMOGENEOUS SOUTHEAST ASIA WOULD RENDER ANY DOUBTS THE
CHINESE HAD ON THIS SCORE SHORT-LIVED.
7. WHILE THE TOTAL OF THESE FACTORS MAY BE SMALL BY
CHINESE COST-INDEXING STANDARDS. THE. ROAD-BUILDING PROGRAM
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- NEVERTHELESS REPRESENTS A CONSIDERABLE INVESTMENT OF
MANPOWER AND CAPITAL AND MUST, THEREFORE, HAVE SOME MORE
SPECIFIC GOAL .THAN SIMPLY OPENING NEW TRADE ROUTES,
ANALYSTS WILL FIND tionyEs APLENTY, ONE NO DOUBT MORE FAR
REACHING THAN HE NEXT9 TO EXPLAIN HOW THE CONSTRUCTION OF
THIS ROUTE IN NORTH.LAOS FITS INTO .THE CHINESE GRAND DESIGN.
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT .THE CHINESE OBjECTIVE IS MULTI-PURPOSED..
SOME OF -THE MORE. VALID PROBABILITIES W0111.:D -SEEM .TO'BE AS
FOLLOWS:
A. THE CHINESE MUST .BE PRESUMED TO HAVE BEEN
FOLLOWING POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN VIETNAM AND THE UNITED
STATE.S WITH A MORE-THAN-CASUAL EYE. 'THUS IT nun ALSO BE
AssumED, THAT THEY FORESAW THE POSSIBILITY�OF AMERICAN/
VIETNAMESE PEACE � NEGOTIATIONS' WELL BEFORE THE -BEGINNING.
OF Tea. PARIS TALKS. IF ONE ACCEPTS THESE POSSIBILITIES, IT
IS 'LIKELY THAT THE CHINESE LOOKED UPON THE ROAD-BUILDING
PROJECT-AS A MEANS OF STRENGTHENING THEIR INFLUENCE OVER
THE PAIHET LAO INSURGENCY. -A:ROAD LEADING ..TO !WONG- SAI
AND VERY POSSIBLY BEYOND, WOULD PROVIDE THEM WITH GOOD�
LINES OF COMMUNICATIONS AND A .LOSIEZICS ARTERY TO SUPPLY THE
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1.3(a)(4)
PATHET LAO FORCES AND THUS .STRENGTHEN: T-HEIR .POLITICAL
HAND IN DEALING WITH THE LAD SUBVERSIVE � MOVEMENT, WHICH
HAS COn TO RELY PRIMANILY ON THE NORTH:VIETNAMESE... THIS-
.0.0:1IvE HAS NO DOUBT BEEN GIVEN. IMPETUS BY 112 NORTH
vrETNAmEsE DECISION TO NEGOTIATE WITH THE UNITED STATES.
rE�AIRING TEAT THE NEGOTIATIONS IN- .PARIS i pF WHIc T.HEY..�
PI.St-iPPROVE, WILL CAST THE. FUTURE OF THE AREA BY GRANTING
A F.EGEMONY TO THE* PAT.HET LAO/READ...NORTH VIETNAMESE/1 �
. 1:HE. ;HINES:F.. mAY WELL. .HAVE DECIDED upog THIS COURSE IN. ORDER
� TO INCREASE THEIR,. .OPTIONS. IN '.111�1-1.ARE OF- TRADITIONAL SIGNIFI-
cANCE TO CHINA.
B. IF. THE CHINESE �ARE ABLE. TO REORIENT THE PATHET
LAO MOVEMENT LOGISTICALLY, � AND � THUS POLITICALLY IT COULD
GIVE Ti-1'M ANOMER SMALL LEVER .WITH *WHICH' TO PRESSURE THE �
NORTH :VIETNAMESE: IF THEY OE Vli:LING TO USE FLA TROOPS IN
� NORTH LAPS, IT COULD MEAN THAT CHINESE TROOPS AND INSTALLA- .
TICNS COULD BE PLACED ALONG THE NORTHERN. SECTOR OF THE
CuRRENT LAC/NORTH VIETNAM BORDER. THIS, IN�TuRN, wOuLD'
PROVIDE THE CHINESEyWITH YET ANOTHER POLITICAL LEVER TO BE
USED AGAINS.T. NORTH �VIETNAM, AS WELL AS BASES FROM WHICH TO
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OUT CLANDESTINE OPERATIONS INTO THE. EORDER AREA OF
NORTH VIETNAM IF AND WHEN. SUCH OPERATIOUS APPEAR TO tE
IN THE INTEREST OF THE CHINESE.
C. ANOTHER RELATED AND POSSIBLY MAJOR CHINESE
OBJECTIVE �COULD WELL BE TO ESTABLISH A .BUFFER ZONE IN
NORTHWEST LAOS TO. INSURE THEIR -HOME .TERR1:ORY AGAINST .
UNWANTED 'INFLUENCE:
D. WITH THE VIETNAMESE _PEACE TALKS,THE �POSSIBILIT Y1.
OF ANOTHER TRIAL MARRIAGE BETWEEN THE CONTENDING .FORCES
IN _LAOS BECOMES MORE .THAN .A POSSIBILITY. A C..-.INESE MILIT=RY
-.PRESENCE IN LAOS WILL NO DOUBT .INFLUENCE.. THOSE INVOLVED. IN
DECIDING �1..r.HAT THE, TERMS OF �THAT MARRIAGE SHALL ,BE.: THE �
ARGO:Z:4.7MT A . . COMMUNIST� Ofil,ENTED MOVEMENT IN Y TEI"TrIANE
WILL BE INA BETTER 'PGSITION TO NEGOTIATE THE .CHINESE.REMOVAZ
WILL .BE .DIFFICULT :.TO _REFUTE.. THE ,PRICE CAN BE liMADAY
itsiAGINED�LEGITIMATION OF THE ROAD CONSTRUCTION AS :AN ATD�
PROJECT, TACIT ACCEPTANCE OF CHINESE BASES IN SAYABCURY
PROVINCE ON THE THAI BORDER ,�AND INCREASED CHINESE INFLItEriCE-
IN Vlit:NTIANE.
E. YET ANOTHER OBJECTIVE OF THE CHINESE ROAD 'LW(
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3E TO TRADE ON THE FIRST FAINT CRACKS. TO APPEAR IN ra LAST �
TEN YEARS IN THE MONOLITH OF THAI POLITICS. WITH A ROAD TO
MUONG SAI, THE CHINESE WOULD HAVE. ESTABLISHED' A MOTORABLE
LINK TO OLD ROUTE �46 WHICH LEADS 'TO THE MEKONG AT PAK BENG
A ROUTE WHICH HAS BEEN USED BY THAI COMMUNIST TERRORIRTS: �
INFILTRATING AND EXFILTRATING THAILAND. THIS OBVIOUSLY WOULD
FACILITATE CHINESE SUPPORT FOR THE THAI COMMUNIST TERRORIST
MOVEMENT. AT THE OPTIMUM,. THE CHINESE MAY HOPE TO
CONVERT TEE CURRENT LIMITED THAI INSURGENCY MOVEMENT
TO A FULL-3LOWN REVOLUTION BEARING 'THE *STAMP OF QUOTE
1ihDE N CHINA UNQUOTE. AT THE VERY LEAST THE CHINESE
HT HOPE TO PRESSURE THAILAND TO A RETURN TO ITS
CZNTURIES�OLD POLICY OF MAINTAINING A COVERT FOOT IN THE
OPPOSITE .CAMP TO SOFTEN ANY SUDDEN REVERSALS OF FORTUNES.
8. IT IS NOT PROBABLE. THAT THE LAO GOVERNMENT WILL.
INITATE GROUND OR AIR MILITARY OPERATIONS AGAINST THE
CHINESE ROAD PROJECT. LAOS DOES NOT W.ISH TO PROVOKE THE
COLOSSUS TO THE NORTH. ALSO, THE LAO GOVERNMENT APPEARS
TO BE UNSUR�E OF ITS LEGAL POSITION. ON 13 JANUARY 1,P62
SISOUMA NG "SISALEUMSAK SIGNED AN-AGREEMENT FADR_THE
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� MEM
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CONSTRUCTION OF A ROAD BETWEEWMENG�LA, CHINA, AND PHONG SALY, LAOS.
ACCORDING TO A RADIO PEKING BROADCAST BASED ON A NEW CHINA NEWS AGENCY
REPORT, THE THEN DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER, PHOUMI NOSAVAN, ASKED THAT THE
ROAD LINKING THE FRONTIERS OF CHINA IN YUNNAN PROVINCE. WITH PHONG SALY
BE EXTENDED AFTER ITS.COMPLETION TO NAM THA IN HOUEI SAI. AT THE TIME,
SOUVANNA PHOUMA TOLD THE AMERICAN AMBASSADOR THAT THE ONLY AGREEMENT IN
FORCE WAS FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF.A ROAD FROM MENG LA TO PHONG SALY, AND
THAT THE NAM THA QUOTE EXTENSION UNQUOTE WAS MERELY PHOUMI'S PROPOSAL
WHICH HAD NOT YET BEEN APPROVED. BY THE- LAO GOVERNMENT. ON 21 NOVEMBER
1968 SOUVANNA CONFIRMED HIS 1962 STATEMENT TO THE AMERICAN AMBASSADOR
BUT AMPLIFIED IT BY EXPRESSING'THE'VIEW THAT PHOUMI HAD REQUESTED THE
CHINESE TO BUILD A ROAD FROM NAM THA TO BAN HOUEI SAI. IF THIS PROVES
'CORRECT THE CHINESE MAY WELL PLAN T0 USE OLD ROUTE 46 TO BAN HOUEI SAI
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AS WELL AS OLD ROUTE 46 TO PAK BENG. THE LAO FOREIGN OFFICE HAS BEEN
UNABLE TO LOCATE THE APPROPRIATE FILES ON THIS CASE. THUS, THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT. THE LAO GOVERNMENT ACTUALLY AGREED IN 1962 TO THE
CONSTRUCTION OF THE ROAD CURRENTLY BEING UNDERTAKEN BY THE CHINESE
COMMUNISTS, OR AT LEAST AGREED TO THE CONSTRUCTION OF A ROAD IN THE
GENERAL AREA IN WHICH THE _CHINESE ARE NOW WORKING.
. �
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9. WHATEVER THE CHINESE MOTIVE-AND THE ACCEPTANCE
OF ONE DOES NOT RULE OUT THE OTHERS. AS .PLAYING A ROLE IN
THE DECISION�THE POLITICAL AND NILITAY IMPACT OF: THF.
ITSELF IS CERTAIN TO CLAIM THE AT:TENT:TO yOt 'POLICY MAKERS
WELL AFTER, IF NOT BEFORE, A SETTLEMENT: IN :VIETNAM.,
7.0. THE AMBASSADOR HAS READ THIS .REPOAT AND OFFERED NO
OBJECTIONS.
11. MOW DISSEM. STATE 'ARMY AIR' AID.USIS. upirAcv.
7TH AIR FORCE .CINCPAC PAGF.L1 ARPAD" PACAF
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