(EST PUB DATE) GLOBAL HUMANITARIAN EMERGENCIES 1996

• Document Type: FOIA
• Keywords: AFGHANISTAN
• Keywords: 1995 TALIBAN CAPTURES
• Keywords: HELMAND
• Keywords: CHARASYAB
• Keywords: HERAT
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0000733411
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: June 22, 2015
• Document Release Date: March 11, 2009
• Case Number: F-2007-00542
• Publication Date: February 1, 1996

Intelligence
National Intelligence Estimate
Global Humanitarian
Emergencies 1996
Volume II: Country Estimates
(b) (1)
(b) (3)
APPROVED FOR RELEASE^
DATE: 19-Jan-2009
9'6
This National Intelligence Estimate represents
the views of the Director of Central Intelligence
with the advice and assistance of the
US Intelligence Community.
-s`eL
NIE 96-1/11
February 1996
Copy 04-117
 Global Humanitarian
Emergencies 1996
Volume II: Country Estimates
Prepared under the auspices of Enid C. B. Schoettle,
National Intelligence Officer for Global and Multi-
laterahlnquiries may be directed to the NIO
February 1996
 Contents
Page
Africa 1
13
13
 Country Estimates
 Secret
Secret 2
 3 S ret
 ? The majority of Liberian refugees and inter-
nally displaced persons-recalling the failure
of the 13 previous cease-fires-probably will
be reluctant to return home soon.
Liberia
The August 1995 Abuja Accord, the latest set-
tlement between warring ethnic factions, has
eased somewhat the humanitarian crisis caused
by a six-year-old conflict. The number of
Liberians requiring humanitarian assistance-
2.1 million in December 1994-has dropped to
nearly 1.5 million. The relative lull in the fight-
ing has enticed a few refugees to return from
neighboring Guinea and Cote d'Ivoire. Relief
agencies now are able to deliver aid throughout
much of Liberia.
Outlook. Although most faction leaders sup-
port the peace process, increased instability and
banditry in the countryside could lead to a
resumption of widespread fighting:
? Disarmament and demobilization have yet to
begin.
? Scattered skirmishes among warring ethnic
factions almost certainly will continue.
? Early elections are likely to compound the
risks of increased instability because several
of the warring factions have a small popula-
tion base.
Even if the political settlement holds, the need
for international aid will remain high in 1996
due to the almost complete destruction of the
country's physical and economic infrastructure.
largest aid donors to Liberia.
Funding. The United States and the EU are the
Most Recent UN Consolidated Appeal. Sep-
tember 1995-August 1996: $110 million; per-
cent met: 5. (U)
 cret 6
 Sec et
II Sett
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 fret 18