ITALIAN POLITICAL SITUATION

• Document Type: FOIA
• Keywords: ITALY
• Keywords: COMMUNISM
• Keywords: POLITICS
• Keywords: ITALIAN POLITICAL PARTY
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0000636448
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: June 24, 2015
• Document Release Date: June 29, 2011
• Case Number: F-2011-01174
• Publication Date: November 24, 1978

APPROVED FOR RELEASE^ DATE:
06-14-2011
24 November 1978
MEMORANDUM
SUBJECT: Italian Political Situation
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
1. Currently, the Andreotti government is confronted by a series of
challenges which contribute to mounting tension among and within the major
political parties. Andreotti's Christian Democratic government relies on
the Communists and four other parties for its parliamentary majority, and
for the time being no consensus exists on an acceptable alternative formula.
But an issue by issue confrontation could eventually result in the erosion
of Andreotti's support.
2. Many of the government's-current difficulties reflect the inter-
twining of Italy's broader economic and political problems. The government
has run into trouble each time it has tried to elaborate specific measures
implementing the general objectives of its proposed economic plan--calculated
to curb labor costs as well as the growing public sector deficit; labor
problems, pension and agrarian reform, and Italy's entry in the proposed
European Monetary System have become particularly contentious issues.
3. With the expiration this year of three-year collective contracts
covering about 5 million workers, the problem of wage restraint will be an
especially significant test of the government's parliamentary support. The
key question is whether the Communist Party and its labor allies' can keep
their commitment to wage restraint. The Communists are feeling increased
rank and file pressure to demonstrate that the party's support for the.
government's program is producing tangible benefits in the form of higher
wages, increased government investment and job creation. Earlier this
month, Treasury Minister Pandolfi told Ambassador-Gardner he would seriously
consider resigning if excessive wage increases undercut the economic plan.
RP M 73-10441
SEGR
 SUBJECT: Italian Political Situation
4. I lincreasing concern among some Communist
leaders and rank and file members that the party's support makes it respon-
sible for government actions with no authority to shape its policy. Dis-
satisfaction with the party's role in the majority is particularly strong
among Communist-oriented workers, many of whom view its support of economic
austerity measures as a betrayal of labor's interests for political motives.
5. There are also indications that some members of the Christian
Democratic and Socialist parties, who want a government less dependent on
the Communists, think that issues related to Andreotti's economic proposals
might be exploited to split his parliamentary majority and create a new
government based on some alliance between their parties. Thus, some Ch-istian
Democratic and Socialist elements in the labor movement have focused on Corn-
munist support for economic austerity measures to cultivate worker sentiment
in favor of higher wages and to lure support away from the more influential
Communist-oriented unions.
6. Despite a climate of mounting tension, many factors argue strongly
against an Italian government collapse in the near future. New general
elections are a strong possibility if the government falls. No party
desires to be held accountable for causing a governmental crisis and
each harbors its own reasons for avoiding an election.
7. The Communists, for example, are concerned that the electoral
trend suggested by their losses in local contest; last May might be confirmed
in a national election. Although there are indications that the Christian
Democratic party would make some gains in a general election, many Christian
Democrats view the current arrangement as the best possible way to hold the
Communists at bay while making them share responsibility for the government's
actions. Christian Democrats are also uncertain about the Socialist Party's
reliability as a coalition partner--the most likely alternative should the
Communists return to the opposition.
8. For their part, the Socialists are also unprepared for an electoral
test in the immediate future. Party leader Craxi is still working out the
theory and implications of an "autonomous policy" calculated to distinguish
the Socialists and presumably capture votes from the two larger parties.
Remembering the losses they suffered while part of the center-left coalition
with the Christian Democrats, the Socialists are reluctant' to commit them-
selves to government responsibility while allowing the Communists the luxury
of monopolizing the opposition.
 SUBJECT: Italian Political Situation
9. Under these circumstances, party leaders are casting about
desperately for a clue--short of a general election--indicating any
significant trends in their relative strengths. The inconclusive results
of recent regional elections in northern Italy, in which the three major
parties dropped compared to the 1976 general elections, present a confused
picture and, if anything, contribute to the parties' reluctance to topple
the Andreotti government.
10. Party leaders are anxiously anticipating several events as
possible measures of changes in their mutual relationships. The Christian
Democratic and Communist Party congresses scheduled for next spring may
provide a glimpse of possible challenges to existing leaders and policies.
Direct elections for membership in the European Parliament next June could
be fought on the basis of domestic issues and may be perceived as a
referendum on the respective parties' actions.
11. Meanwhile, the parties supporting the government will continue to
juggle their conflicting interests in the day-to-day business of governing.
And particularly as they try to implement the economic plan, there is the
danger that any single issue, though not decisive in itself, may create
strains beyond th' parties' capacity for flexibility--resulting in a
misstep and the premature crisis which nearly all the parties are seeking
to avoid.