BESTIARY OF INTELLIGENCE WRITING

• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Collection: Declassified Articles from Studies in Intelligence: The IC’s Journal for the Intelligence Professional
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0000619161
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Release Date: July 30, 2014
• Case Number: F-2013-02322
• Publication Date: September 1, 1982

Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161TITLE: Bestiary of Intelligence WritingAUTHOR:(b)(3)(c)Drawings by(b)(3)(c)VOLUME: 26 ISSUE: Fall YEAR: 1982Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161i.pproved. for ReleSTU? 2014/07/29 000619161DIES ININTELLIGENCEA collection of articles on the historical, operational, doctrinal, and theoretical aspects of intelligence. ?All statements of fact, opinion or analysis expressed in Studies in Intelligence are those ofthe authors. They do not necessarily reflect official positions or views of the CentralIntelligence Agency or any other US Government entity, past or present. Nothing in thecontents should be construed as asserting or implying US Government endorsement of anarticle's factual statements and interpretations.Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161Confusion is probably&mist inevitableBESTIARY OF INTELLIGENCE WRITING * (b)(3)(c)  Drawings by (b)(3)(c)Older employees may recall that when the Headquarters Building wasbeing constructed, guard dogs stalked the corridors by night to sniff outtrespassers. Practically no one is aware, however, of the collection of strangefauna in a corner of a sub-basement, the location of which must remain secret.This collection, known as the Bestiary of Intelligence Writing, consists ofspecimen samples of cliches and misused or overused word combinations thatCIA editors have encountered frequently over the years.Now, for the first time, the Curator of the Collectia has received --permission to reveal the existence of the Bestiary and identify some of itsprincipal specimens for the enlightenment, education, and general edificationof CIA writers. It is hoped that with their new awareness of the Bestiary, ana-lysts and other authors will keep their eyes peeled, noses to the grindstone, andears to the ground, to call the attention of editors to other candidates forpossible inclusion in the collection.The Collection1. Multidisciplinary analysis2. Viable alternatives3. Mounting crises4. Parameters5. Heightened tensions6. Dire straits7. Far-reaching implication8. Available evidence9. Foreseeable future10. Almost inevitable11. Nonstarter12. Economic constraints13. Broad outlines14. Net effect15. Overwhelming majority? Apologies to A Political Bestiary, by Eugene McCarthy, James J. Kilpatrick, and JeffMaeNelly.59Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161BestiaryMultidisciplinary analysis, once a euphemism for the school of psycho-analysis whose treatment utilizes certain perversions, has gained new respect-ability since being applied to intelligence zoology. In this animal world, themultidisciplinary analysis has been around for years but has only recently been-discovered- as? a species separate from other kinds of analysis. ? A multi-disciplinary analysis looks like two or more conventional one-dimensionalanalyses welded together. It appears rather unkempt, with lots of loose endshanging here and there, and its surfaces have a sticky substance that allowsextraneous materials to adhere. Because of its variegated aspect, it appears tohave more depth than its one-dimensional cousins.Multidisciplinary analysis has begun to flourish to an unprecedenteddegree in recent months and has largely swept its conventional cousins into thetrash bin of history. Some who prefer the clean lines of conventional analysisare not certain this trend is a good thing. Multidisciplinary analysis heretoforewas a hybrid, the fruit of the casual mating of standard forms of analysis; somescientists doubt the survivability of a multidisciplinary analysis arrived atthrough forced breeding. Others argue that multidisciplinary analysis is thewave of the future (-Ordnung und Multidiziplin muessen sein!'') and proclaimthat it is really something more (Ueberanalyse) than the sum of its parts.? Zoological historians disagree over where multidisciplinary analysis first appeared, butmost believe it evolved in North America in the second half of the twentieth century. Some be-lieve that Dr. Rube Goldberg was its Gregor Mendel.60Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161BestiaryViable alternatives, nature's born troubleshooters, are moody and shy.They wander off when times are good because governments and officials tendto ignore them; when times are bad, officials are dismayed to discover thatthey don't have any. Analysts sometimes confuse viable alternatives with theirmore common cousins, plainalternatives, which oftentempt troubled officials withfalse solutions. Unlike viablealternatives, regular alterna-tives are less shy and nevergo away, even when officialscontinually reject them. Of-ficials as well as analysts of-ten cannot differentiate be-tween the two sub-speciesuntil their advice haseen?tried and 'judged.No one has discoveredthe origin of viable alterna-tives. Some scientists believetheir propagation is by par-thenogenesis because viablealternatives tend to be mu-tually exclusive and havenever been known to mate.Others suspect that viablealternatives may be relatedto problems because prob-lems occasionally suggest vi-able alternatives.There is even learneddisagreement over the origin of the word -viable.- Novice analysts oftenbelieve the word derives from and combines with the Latin via, meaning byway of, and bull. Others see the Latin root as modifying the noun in the senseof, in this case, an alternative that succeeds. But this imparts a whiff of ex-post-factoism unworthy of the true analyst. Experienced analysts avoid theissue.61Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161BestiaryMounting crises are frequently detected by intelligence analysts, butgenuine crises are rare, and most sightings probably are of the larval form,known as problems and difficulties.' Most crises are of the political oreconomic gender, but occasionally the sighting of a military (or of an evenrarer, social) crisis is claimed. Crises tend to shun each other's company,although political and economic crises sometimes go hand in hand. Because,they are almost impossible to identify when young (chicken sexers have thebest record) and grow slowly, crises are almost always seen as mounting. Theyare never observed dismounting, and their decease remains an enigma toanalysts. There is considerable non-scientific thinking about how they endtheir days: some believe that crises disappear, dissolve, evaporate, or areresolved.-? Learned literature is not wholly agreed that problems and difficulties are a larval form ofcrises. There- appears to be an ample body of evidence that problems and difficulties candevelop into crises, but it is equally obvious that not all do so. Some observers argue, in fact, thatcrises must be a separate species because while governments never want to have crises around,they appear, for some reason, to tolerate problems and difficulties, perhaps to create an imageof activity and a raison cretre.62Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161BestiaryParameters, beloved of de-fense specialists and bureaucratsin general, are the watchdogs ofanalysts who like to think -bigthoughts.- Legless creatures, pa-rameters must be "established"bythe analyst, who typicallyplaces them at the fringes of ac-tivity, more to keep the activityfrom straying than to preven7Kn-filtration from the-outside.Parameters are the next evo-lutionary development of limits,which have existed for centuriesbut which tend to be common,colorless, and susceptible to over-extension. Some of the supposed greater deterrent effect of parameters stemsfrom the awe they inspire in the analyst and, he hopes, in the reader. Becauseno one?until this writing?wassure what parameters were, peo-ple have been content to observethem, once in place, rather thanto challenge them.As their name suggests, pa-rameters invariably exist as pairs;a solitary unimeter does not existin nature. Their method of repro-duction is somewhat obscure;they are probably androgynousbut are never heard of until some-body -sets- them. Nor is theirdecease well understood: oncethey are -set,- they are neverunset, and they apparently areleft in place to be forgotten.63Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161BestiaryHeightened tensions are easily recognized by their elongated shape?conventional tensions teetering about on stilts. In the previous century,heightened tensions were almost always military and observable only in thenarrow no-man's land on theborders between countries. Inrecent decades, however, they'have assumed more of a poli-tical character (less frequently,an economic or social char-acter) and may be found wher-ever there are masses of people.Heightened tensions arethe adult form of conventionaltensions?tensions that haveacquired stilts by thriviqg on arich diet of poverty, mgnutri,tion, and esfiecially alienation.Heightened tensions, like someother species in this Bestiary,exist only in the plural formand, rather than breed, seem tospring like maggots from theaforementioned dietary com-ponents. Their growth poten-tial appears unlimited, andsome analysts have reportedheightened tensions heighten-ing again and again.64Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161BestiaryDire straits are another ofnature's unpleasant beasties, no-table primarily for their largemouths, voracious appetites, andpenehant for ambushing theunwary. Frivolous governments,heedless of where they are tread-ing, often find themselves sud-denly in dire straits. Rescue is invariably difficult and unpleasant.?Dire straits come in several genders,common than the political, military, orbut dire economic straits are moresocial varieties. Dire straits are anextremely social species: they al-ways are observed in groups oftWo or more and never as a singlestrait. Nevertheless, they havenever been observed to mate, andthe method of their propagationremains a mystery.? Viable alternatives are the natural enemies of dire straits. Governments escape dire straitswhen they have viable alternatives. The conflict is bloody, prolonged, and often seemingly indoubt. Although viable alternatives always prevail, the conflict is fatal to both parties.65Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161V:.0.;:.elotTele..,,:.........." 2 .L.%I.NrAtri 4BestiaryThe far-reaching implication is an .animal that gov-ernments often ignore because of its oda physiognomy: itsbody tends to be ethereal, and most of its substance isconcentrated in long mandibles, or arms. Governmentsare continually surprised to discover a far-reaching impli-cation reaching for something embarrassing or dangerous.Analysts seem to have a much better ability than govern-ments to discern far-reaching implications.The far-reaching implication is the adolescent formof the conventional implication. As far-reaching implica-tions grow, their reach gradually shortens, and theybecome more visible, until they are easily seen by all andbecome mere implications. The loss of mandibles in thisgrowth process is swift; no one, in fact, has ever observeda near-reaching implication.Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161BestiaryOne of the most awe-inspiring creatures is the available evidence,sometimes called the available information, which intelligence analysts fre-quently use to support shaky conclusions. This vital and difficult task isaccomplished with utmost tact--available evidence suggests . . .- The carelessanalyst sometimes asserts mistakenly that available evidence -indicates,- notrealizing that only full-fledged evidence can provide this degree of support.Analysts should be more appreciative of the available evidence's propping upability and realize the difficulty they would be in without it.As the name implies, available evidence is always nearby, whereas regularevidence may be off somewhere unaware that its presence is needed. A shycreature, an available evidence always slips away quietly once regularevidence arrives either to solidify the conclusion or sweep it away.There was once a widely held view, now articulated only by purists, thatavailable evidence is not a sub-species of evidence, that in fact there is onlyevidence or the lack thereof. Whatever evidence exists, they argue, rs--bydefinition available and, therefore, does not need to be so labeled. Modernresearch has disproved this myth, for we know now that unavailable evidenceexists?it is somewhere else.67Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161BestiaryForeseeable futures are the favorite pets of political and economicforecasters. No forecaster dares to be caught without one, and a forecasterwith an obedient foreseeable future is admired by all.They are moody and dangerous animals, however, and frequently turnupon their masters, causing them great public humiliation, derision, and grief.That such a disagreeable beast enjoys privileged status in society is testimony'to its great prestige. The more professional futurists, however, such as weatherforecasters and most political analysts, have nothing to do with foreseeablefutures. And, despite their name, these beasts are not suitable as seeing eyecompanions.Most analysts, however, play around with regular futures, a less mercurial,related species that can still be misleading and dangerous. Economic analystsin particular often deal with pork belly futures and soy bean futures becauseof their occasional ability to sniff out hidden wealth. These futures, despitetheir names, are totally unrelated to foreseeable futures, although they aredangerous in their own right.68Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161BestiaryThe almost inevitable, cousin to the virtually certain, is an indoor pest ofthe genus eventuality that has defied man's eradication efforts since the Dawnof Time. Curiously, many people have never seen an almost inevitable?because of its nocturnal habits?and some have labeled as almost inevitablethings that really are not. The name has become synonymous with everythingdisagreeable?when faced with such prospects as death and taxes, people will.throwthrow up their hands and exclaim that -they're almost inevitable."Some people argue, no doubt because it is so seldom seen, that the almostinevitable does not really exist. They maintain that the life cycle of theeventuality consists of only three stages?the possible, probable, and inevi-table?and that there is no gradation between probable and inevitable. Someof our era's more thoughtful thinkers and editors, however, recognize theseparate existence of the probably inevitable, a distinctive distinction that islost on most people.Such confusion is probably almost inevitable.69Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161BestiaryAnalysts and bookies are fond of ferreting out nonstarters, those unfortu-nate beasts that because of their physiognomy are destined never to enter,much less win, a contest. Their desire to compete is intense, however, andbecause of their marvelous faculty for disguise, they love to mingle withgenuine starters and confuse the unwary. Journeymen analysts can quicklydistinguish between starters and nonstarters: genuine starters have either wingsso that they can fly or brass grommets so that they can be run up a flagpoleand saluted. Congenital optimists, nonstarters are fond of consoling each otherthat they are merely ideas whose times have not yet come. In truth, however,they are often worn out or refurbished ideas and never were legitimatestarters. One of nature's saddest species.70Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161BestiaryApproved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161?- -'Economic constraints have become a common pest in the1980s after being introduced into this country following WorldWar II by soldiers returning from Europe. Infestations arethickest around institutes dealing with the "Dismal Scierre-e," _but swarms of a new strain, tentatively called political con-straints, have been mentioned in recent political and intelli-gence literature. Some Pentagon analysts and observers evenreport a possible third mutation, the military constraint.Swarming constraints tend to produce clouds so dense as toobscure vision. Governments and individuals so beset have nochoice but not to do whatever they were planning to do.Deceitful governments, anxious for an excuse not to dosomething, sometimes blame the arrival of a swarm of con-straints for their inaction, when in fact there are no mites inthe vicinity.Impervious to weather, constraints can appear in anyseason. On the other hand, they rarely appear in politicalseasons, probably because candidates at such times do not wantto imply that their vision and scope of action are at all limited.Constraints, curiously, seem to increase in activity after elec-tions. Behaviorists also note that although constraints swarm inany season, they are directly affected by the economic (orpolitical) climate, thriving when it is poor and disappearingwhen it is good.?t, 'AtiAlcare' ?71Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161BestiaryBroad outlines are gluttonous predators that feed on the imaginations ofprofessors, students, and political analysts. Unique in the zoological kingdombecause they grow from the outside in, broad outlines are conventional in mostother ways? they are conceived andthen carried to fruition unless they mis-carry. As with humans, the process of'conceiving broad outlines seems to bemuch more pleasurable than carrying -them to fruition. There is a high infantmortality rate among broad outlines?they often fall prey to nonstarters?andmany starve from lack of being filled in.Those that are lucky enough to be filled -in discover, moreover, that people rapidlybecome more interested in the filling andquickly lose interest in the outline- .Despite what their name implies,broad outlines do not share their phylumwith what might be called narrow out-lines. There are no such animals aroundtoday, nor is there any fossil evidence thatany ever existed. The broad outlines'closest relatives are regular outlines, a modest, less impressive version. Broadoutlines probably evolved out of regular outlines sometime in the past, theresult of too rich a diet of academia nuts roasted in professorial hot air.72Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161BestiaryThe net effect is a hybrid beast of burden developed by political scientistsjealous of the net assessment that Secretary of Defense McNamara's -whizkids- bred in the Pentagon basement in the early 1960s. The political analystand his net effect quickly became an object of derision among economists andmilitary analysts who looked down their noses at the beast as being tooimprecise. In the last two decades, however, the net effect has popped upeverywhere, and the net assessment is now found only in zoos and anoccasional National Estimate.The popularity of the net effect is obvious. Analysts quickly saw that itsmany long arms and legs would allow the net effect easily to wrap up data,draw bottom lines, summarize, conclude, and jump from fact to implication.Its genetic ancestor, the effect, could also do these things, but the addition ofthe net allowed the lazy and insecure analyst to imply more clearly to hissupervisor that he was considering facts or trends on both sides of an issue.The Russians are wont to claim discovery of the net effect, saying it is acontemporary manifestation of the thesis-antithesis-synthesis process discov-ered by Hegel and Marx which they apply scrupulously in solving all theirproblems. Until greater access to Soviet intelligence analysis allows anindependent verification, this claim must be regarded as dubious.73Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161BestiaryThe overwhelming majority is the best known of a species of draft animalused by many analyst's to carry the burden of their argument and analysis. Itspopularity stems from its versatility: it can believe, support, and advocate. Itloves to vote, and polling organizations frequently cite it to support theirconclusions. Garrulous and with an opinion on just about everything, over-whelming majorities seldom respond that they -have no opinion- or -don'tknow.-The species majority contains two sub-species: the greater majority (alsoknown as the big or wide majority) and the lesser majority (sometimes called anarrow or thin majority). Overwhelming majorities are nothing more thanoverfed or overinflated greater majorities, which analysts mistakenly believecan do a job better because of their immense girth. ? In fact, overwhelmingmajorities often tend to be flabby, and the most effective majority frequentlyis the leaner, tougher working majority.? An overwhelming majority is called a consensus when it becomes so widespread that it isgeneral. Perhaps for this reason some analysts occasionally talk about a general consensus. Thisis, of course, grossly inappropriate because contemporary consensuses are always anti-militaristic.74Approved for Release: 2014/07/29 000619161